1
Postdoctoral researcher in Political Geography, Kharazmi University of Tehran
2
Department of Political Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
10.22103/JUSG.2026.2196
Abstract
Introduction: Iran's port cities, due to their strategic maritime and transit position, play a key role in the country's economic and geopolitical development. However, the future of these cities is influenced by multiple drivers that have not yet been systematically identified. The aim of this research is to identify the geopolitical drivers affecting the future of Iran's port cities and to provide prescriptive strategies based on scenario planning. Data and Method: The present research is applied-exploratory in nature and was conducted using a mixed-method (quantitative-qualitative) approach. Data were collected through interviews with ten elites and experts in political geography, urban planning, and economics. Structural analysis software MICMAC and scenario planning software ScenarioWizard. Results: Five key drivers were identified as the most influential variables: (1) creating incentives for investors, (2) development of maritime-economic tourism, (3) centrality of global companies and brands, (4) diversified business, and (5) a dynamic central workforce and acceptance of migrant populations. Based on the combination of these drivers' states, eight scenarios were developed into three groups: 'Economic Prosperity' (favorable), 'Government Inefficiency' (static), and 'Comprehensive Sanctions' (critical). Investment was identified as the most critical leverage point. Conclusion: Achieving a favorable future for Iran's port cities requires adopting aggressive strategies in attracting investment, developing maritime tourism, smartening ports, economic diplomacy, and integrating urban-port management. In the absence of these measures, the continuation of the current situation or intensification of sanctions will reduce competitiveness and gradually eliminate Iran from the geopolitical network of global ports over the next decade.
Ghorbani Sepehr, A. and Motaghi, A. (2026). Analysis of Geopolitical Drivers of Iran's Port Cities Using a Scenario Planning Approach. Journal of Urban Social Geography, (), -. doi: 10.22103/JUSG.2026.2196
MLA
Ghorbani Sepehr, A. , and Motaghi, A. . "Analysis of Geopolitical Drivers of Iran's Port Cities Using a Scenario Planning Approach", Journal of Urban Social Geography, , , 2026, -. doi: 10.22103/JUSG.2026.2196
HARVARD
Ghorbani Sepehr, A., Motaghi, A. (2026). 'Analysis of Geopolitical Drivers of Iran's Port Cities Using a Scenario Planning Approach', Journal of Urban Social Geography, (), pp. -. doi: 10.22103/JUSG.2026.2196
CHICAGO
A. Ghorbani Sepehr and A. Motaghi, "Analysis of Geopolitical Drivers of Iran's Port Cities Using a Scenario Planning Approach," Journal of Urban Social Geography, (2026): -, doi: 10.22103/JUSG.2026.2196
VANCOUVER
Ghorbani Sepehr, A., Motaghi, A. Analysis of Geopolitical Drivers of Iran's Port Cities Using a Scenario Planning Approach. Journal of Urban Social Geography, 2026; (): -. doi: 10.22103/JUSG.2026.2196
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