1
Department of Geography, Department of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2
Department of Geography, University ot Tehran, Tehran, Iran
10.22103/jusg.2026.2185
Abstract
Introduction: Rapid urbanization and the proliferation of informal settlements have led to challenges such as inadequate infrastructure, unemployment, and social vulnerability in developing cities, including Kerman, Iran. Data and Method: This study employs a foresight approach to assess the current state and potential livability scenarios of informal settlements in Kerman. Using a descriptive-analytical method, livability factors and variables were identified through a review of relevant literature and expert consultations. By applying the MICMAC method and Scenario Wizard software, four key drivers—namely infrastructure development, integrated management, private sector participation, and waste management—were identified from 20 factors. Based on these drivers, four scenarios (optimistic, likely optimistic, likely pessimistic, and pessimistic) were developed. Results: Findings indicate that these settlements face multiple challenges across physical-spatial, economic, socio-cultural, environmental, and institutional dimensions. The comprehensive plan’s incentive and restrictive policies can contribute to achieving a sustainable and identity-driven city. Conclusion: This study enriches the theoretical framework of foresight in the context of informal settlements and provides a practical roadmap for urban policy-making, though it highlights limitations such as geographical focus and the need for longitudinal research.
Moeini, S. , hataminejad, H. and zanganeh shahraki, S. (2026). Foresight and Identification of Livability Scenarios for Informal Settlements (Case Study: Kerman City). Journal of Urban Social Geography, (), -. doi: 10.22103/jusg.2026.2185
MLA
Moeini, S. , , hataminejad, H. , and zanganeh shahraki, S. . "Foresight and Identification of Livability Scenarios for Informal Settlements (Case Study: Kerman City)", Journal of Urban Social Geography, , , 2026, -. doi: 10.22103/jusg.2026.2185
HARVARD
Moeini, S., hataminejad, H., zanganeh shahraki, S. (2026). 'Foresight and Identification of Livability Scenarios for Informal Settlements (Case Study: Kerman City)', Journal of Urban Social Geography, (), pp. -. doi: 10.22103/jusg.2026.2185
CHICAGO
S. Moeini , H. hataminejad and S. zanganeh shahraki, "Foresight and Identification of Livability Scenarios for Informal Settlements (Case Study: Kerman City)," Journal of Urban Social Geography, (2026): -, doi: 10.22103/jusg.2026.2185
VANCOUVER
Moeini, S., hataminejad, H., zanganeh shahraki, S. Foresight and Identification of Livability Scenarios for Informal Settlements (Case Study: Kerman City). Journal of Urban Social Geography, 2026; (): -. doi: 10.22103/jusg.2026.2185
)