Modeling the Causal Dynamics of Social Resilience and Its Impact on Enhancing Urban Health in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic (Case Study: Zanjan City)

Document Type : Research Article (Applied - Development)

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities, University of zanjan, zanjan,

2 Full Professor, Department of Geography, Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities, University of zanjan, zanjan, Iran

3 Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran.

10.22103/jusg.2026.2182

Abstract

Introduction:The COVID-19 pandemic, as one of the most significant biological crises of the recent century, has had extensive impacts on social structures and urban health.Social resilience, as a key concept in crisis response, plays a fundamental role in maintaining the cohesion and health of communities. This study aims to model the causal dynamics of social resilience and examine its effect on enhancing urban health in the city of Zanjan.
Data and Method: This applied research was conducted using a mixed-methods approach (qualitative-quantitative). In the qualitative phase, the effective components of social resilience were identified through expert opinions and theoretical sources. In the quantitative phase, field data were analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (PLS) and system dynamics modeling to investigate the relationships among variables. The statistical population of the research is specialists and experts, and sampling was done using a urposive method from 20 specialists.
Results: The results indicated that social resilience has a positive and significant effect on urban health with an impact coefficient of 0.894. Key influential components included "knowledge, skills, and social awareness," "social support," "social cohesion," and "access to services." The system dynamics model also demonstrated that increasing social resilience leads to reductions in poverty, mortality, and disease prevalence, thereby enhancing urban health.
Conclusion: The study’s findings reveal that social resilience plays a vital role in optimal crisis management and the improvement of urban health. Therefore, strengthening this component through citizen participation, public education, social support, and intelligent policymaking should be prioritized by urban planners and managers.

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