Evaluating the social security of metropolises in the conditions of climate change Using the system dynamics model (case study: Ahvaz etropolis)

Document Type : Research Article (Applied - Development)

Authors

1 Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

2 PhD student in Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

Abstract

Introduction: today, the urban population of the world is increasing and this increasing and unbridled growth has involved the residents of the cities with many problems and has caused all kinds of insecurity and social anomalies. The climate crisis is one of the main challenges of the 21st century which leads to social unrest and threatens livelihood, stability, and prosperity. The purpose of this research is to evaluate and analyze the role of urban planning in creating social security in the conditions of climate change in Ahvaz metropolis. The research method is descriptive-analytical and based on library documentary studies and field surveys.
Data and Method: In this regard, first, the trend of changes in climatic parameters for a period of 50 years (seasonal and annual) of the Ahvaz synoptic station was investigated using the Mann-Kendall statistical test, Then, the structural consequences of climate change in Ahvaz city was modeled using the system dynamics approach. In this research, which is based on a systemic approach, The effective and efficient factors involved in the subject and the relationships between them were investigated through causal and effectual loops in Vensim software.
Results: The findings of the research show that during the studied period of climate changes in the city of Ahvaz, it has shown itself in the form of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation, increasing relative humidity, and decreasing solar radiation. During the 60-year process, the average temperature was (48) degrees Celsius with an increase of (0.01) degrees every year, which shows an increasing trend. Also, the investigation of the annual rainfall changes in Ahvaz station during the 50-year process, with an average rainfall of (72) mm and a decrease of about (0.0186) mm per year, there has been a decreasing trend.
Conclusion: The results show the fact that climate changes in Ahvaz city have various social-security consequences. Direct effects on various facilities-infrastructure and planning-management sectors, including reduction of investments, damage to infrastructure, marginalization and increase in costs, the most important of which are reduction of quality of life, reduction of welfare and social anomalies and insecurity in urban spaces.

Keywords

References

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Journal of Urban Social Geography
Volume 10, Issue 2 - Serial Number 23
September 2023
Pages 145-166

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  • Receive Date: 18 May 2023
  • Revise Date: 27 July 2023
  • Accept Date: 23 August 2023

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