Analyzing the consequences of urban land use on rural residences using satellite imagery and Markov chain model (Case study: Kerman city)

Document Type : Research Article (Applied - Development)

Authors

1 Assitant Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran

2 Assitant Professor of Geomorphology, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran

3 MSc of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran

Abstract

Objective Expansion without the urban plan of the city and its integration with villages and urban settlements in developing countries, including Iran, is unavoidable. It can be said that one of the most important factors in the dispersed growth of the city of Kerman has been changes without land use planning. Hence, predicting these changes can play a significant role in future management decisions and future plans of the city.
Methods: Considering the high performance of the CA-Markov model in predicting land use changes, in this study, this model was designed with the aim of predicting the development trend and land use changes in the year 1406 horizons. From satellite images of the years 1368, 1379, 1387 and 1396 To predict and detect changes.
Results:The results show that in the prediction map of 1406, the area of ​​the three classes, the lands constructed 10273 hectares, the land of 1229 hectares and the vegetation of 9983 hectares will be. Also, the map shows that the area of ​​dry land classes and vegetation decreased by 118 and 219 hectares, respectively. Also, the class of lands constructed from the base year (1396) did not change significantly.
Conclusion: Considering the high efficiency of this model in forecasting land use changes, its results can be used in future planning and decision making in Kerman.

Keywords

Main Subjects


Arkhi, S (1394). Detection of Coverage / Land Use Change by Object-Oriented Processing of Satellite Images Using the Idrisi Selvi Software (Case Study: Abdanan Area), Journal of Geographic Information Science (Sepehr), Vol.24, No.95, pp.51-62. (In Persian)
Arsanjani, J.J., Helbich, M., Kainz, W., Boloorani, A.D (2013). Integration of logistic regression, Markov chain and cellular automata models to simulate urban expansion. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 21, 265-275. (In English)
Azizi Ghalati, S., Rangzan, K., Sadidi, J., Heidarian, P., Taghizadeh, A (2016). Prognosis of Land Use Land Use Change Process Using Markov-CA Chain Model (Case Study: Kohmareh Sorkhi Region of Fars Province). Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems in Natural Resources, Vol.7, No.1, pp.71-59. (In Persian)
Birjandi, Mehrdad, Karimi, Mohammad (2016). Multi-factor modeling of the growth of informal settlements in GIS Vector. Journal of Information Technology Engineering, Vol.4, No.1, pp.38-17. (In Persian)
Eastman, J.R. (2003). IDRISI Kilimanjaro: guide to GIS and image processing. (In English)
Ebrahimzadeh, I; Varesi, H, Akbari, M (2010). The Role of Rural Immigration in Informal Settlements (Case Study: Ahwaz Metropol), Journal of Rural Studies, Vol.1, No.1, pp.191-166. (In Persian)
Eilaghi Hosseini, M, Mohammad Salmani, M, Kamyab Moghadas, R (2014). Optimization of optimal spaces for temporary and emergency resettlement of the urban population after the earthquake crisis using the spatial information system (GIS) and fuzzy model (FUZZY), 5th National Conference on Earthquake and Structures, Kerman University of Jihad, p.1-11. (In Persian)
El-Kawy, O. A., Rød, J.K., Ismail, H.A., Suliman, A.S (2011). Land use and land cover change detection in the western Nile delta of Egypt using remote sensing data. Applied Geography, Vol.31, No.2, pp.483-494.(In English)
Ghareati Jahromi, M., Vali, A., Mousavi, S. H., Panahi, F., Khosravi, H (2014). Monitoring of Land Use Change in Kashan Plain Using Remote Metering Data. International Journal of Earthquake Research, Vol.4, No.2, p.137-129. (In Persian)
Gholamali Fard, M., Jorabian Shooshtari, S., Hosseini Kahnouj, S.H., Mirzaei, M (2012). Modeling Land Use Change in Coasts of Mazandaran Province Using LCM in GIS Environment. Ecology, Vol.38, No.4, pp.124-109. (In Persian)
Guan, D., Li, H., Inohae, T., Su, W., Nagaie, T., Hokao, K. (2011). Modeling urban land use change by the integration of cellular automaton and Markov model. Ecological Modelling, Vol.222, No.20-22, pp.3761-3772. (In English)
Haddadi, A., Sahebi, M.R., Mokhtarzadeh, M., Fatahi, H (2009). Provides a combination of monitored and un monitored neural networks in the classification of remote sensing images. Remote sensing and GIS of Iran, Vol.1, No.3, pp.23-50. (In Persian)
Heydarian, P., Rangzan, K., Maleki, S., Taghizadeh, A (2013). Land use change monitoring using the comparison method after classification of Landsat satellite images (case study: lands of Tehran city). Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems in Natural Resources, Vol.4, No.4, pp.1-10. (In Persian)
Irandoust, K., Sarafi, M (2007). Despair and Hope in Informal Settlements, Case Study: Kermanshah City, Social Welfare Quarterly. No.26, pp.221-201. (In Persian)
Jabbari, M.K, (2012). Urban Development Modeling Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Automatic Cells. Simin Ahmadi (Translator), Azar Kalak Publications, Zanjan. (In Persian)
Kamyab, H.R., Salmani Mahini, A.R, Hosseini, S.M., Gholamali Fard, M (2011). Application of Artificial Neural Networks in Urban Development Modeling (Case Study: Gorgan City). Human Geography Research, Vol.43, No.76, pp.99-113. (In Persian)
Kazemi, M., Mahdavi, Y., Noahegar, A., Rezaei, P (2011). Estimation of vegetation changes and land use using remote sensing and geographic information system (case study: Tang-Bostanak Basin, Shiraz). Quarterly Journal of Remote Sensing and GIS in Natural Resources Science, Vol.2, No.1, pp.101-111. (In Persian)
Khoi, D.D., Murayama, Y (2010). Forecasting areas vulnerable to forest conversion in the Tam Dao National Park Region, Vietnam. Remote Sensing, Vol.2, No.5, pp.1249-1272. (In English)
Kirk, M (2003). Ensuring Efficient Land Management in Peri-urban Areas. World Bank Report. (In English)
Landis, J.R., Koch, G.G (1977). The measurement of observer agreement for categorical data. Biometrics, 159-174. (In English)
Longley, P.A., Goodchild, M.F., Maguire, D.J., Rhind, D.W (2005). Geographic information systems and science. John Wiley & Sons. (In English)
Madurapperuma, B., Rozario, P., Oduor, P., Kotchman, L (2015). Land-use and land-cover change detection in Pipestem Creek watershed, North Dakota. International Journal of Geomatics and Geosciences, 5(3), 416. (In English)
Moghadam, H.S., Helbich, M (2013). Spatiotemporal urbanization processes in the megacity of Mumbai, India: A Markov chains-cellular automata urban growth model. Applied Geography, No.40, pp.140-149. (In English)
Montazeri Shad, P., Goodarzi Soroush, M.M., Naghdi, A (2016), An Analytical Approach to Automobile Habitats to Increase Social Interactions. Case Study: Khezr District. International Contemporary Building, Contemporary World Architecture and Urbanism, Dubai, Assembly of Engineers Young - Research Institute of Jiroo Consortium - Research and Academic Center, pp.1-15. (In Persian)
Norayi, H., Tayebian, M., Rezaei, N (2013). Security analysis in informal settlements with an emphasis on social harm (Case study: Tehran Soil District). Urban Identity Journal, Vol.7, No.13, p.11-22. (In Persian)
Pontius, R.G (2000). Quantification error versus location error in comparison of categorical maps. Photogrammetric engineering and remote sensing, Vol.66, No.8, pp.1011-1016. (In English)
Rafiei, Reza, Salman-Mahehini, Abdolrasoul, Khorasani, Nematollah (2011). Land use land use changes by comparison method after Landsat and IRS satellite image categorization. Quarterly Journal of Remote Sensing and GIS in Natural Resources Science, Vol. 2, No. 3, pp.53-64. (In Persian)
Rajitha, K., Mukherjee, C.K., Vinu Chandran, R., Prakash Mohan, M.M (2010). Land-cover change dynamics and coastal aquaculture development: a case study in the East Godavari delta, Andhra Pradesh, India using multi-temporal satellite dataInternational Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol.31, No.16, pp.4423-4442. (In English)
Ramezani, N., Jafari, R (1393). Detection of land use change and land cover at 1404 horizons using CA Markov chain model (Case study: Esfarayn). Quarterly journal of geographic research, Vol.29, No.4, pp.96-83. (In Persian)
Rashmi, M.K., Lele, N (2010). Spatial modeling and validation of forest cover change in Kanakapura region using GEOMOD. Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing, Vol.38, No.1, pp.45-54. (In English)
Saeedi, A., Hosseini, S (2007). Municipal integration of rural settlements with a view of the metropolis of Tehran and around. Geography Journal, Vol.5, No.12-13, pp.7-18. (In Persian)
Sang, L., Zhang, C., Yang, J., Zhu, D., Yun, W (2011). Simulation of land use spatial pattern of towns and villages based on CA–Markov model. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, Vol.54, No.3-4, pp.938-943. (In English)
Sarrafi, M (2008). Regularizing Informal Settlements In Light Of Good Urban Governance in Iran. Journal of urban development and organization-HaftShahr, Vol.23-24, pp.4-13. (In Persian)
Schulz, J.J., Cayuela, L., Echeverria, C., Salas, J., Rey Benayas, J.M (2010). Monitoring Land Cover Change of the Dryland Forest Landscape of Central Chile (1975- 2008). Applied Geography, Vol.30, No.3, pp.436-447. (In English)
Shahrokh, M., Al-Modaresi, S.A., Mofidifar, M., Malekzadeh Bafghi, Sh (2014). Evaluation of Markov Chain Model Efficiency in Estimating Land Use Change and Land Coverage Using Satellite LANDSAT Images. First National Conference on Application of Advanced Spatial Analysis (Remote Sensing and GIS) Models in Land Planning, Islamic Azad University, Yazd Branch. pp.1-10. (In Persian)
Shokouee, H (2013). New perspectives on urban geography. Publication side(In Persian)
Statistical Center of Iran, (2016). Statistical Yearbook. (In Persian)
Tripathi, D.K., Kumar, M (2012). Remote sensing based analysis of land use/land cover dynamics in Takula Block, Almora District (Uttarakhand). Journal of Human Ecology, Vol.38, No.3, pp.207-212. (In English)
Zare Garazi, A., BardiSheikh, Vahed., Sa'doddin, Amir., SalmanMahini, A.R (2012). Spatial simulation - time variation of forest cover in Chehelchay watershed of Golestan province using a model of automated cell and Markov chain integration. Quarterly Journal of Forest and Poplar Research, Vol.20, No.2, pp.273-285. (In Persian)